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    世界经济论坛:2070使命-净零印度的绿色新政(英文版)(18页).pdf

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    世界经济论坛:2070使命-净零印度的绿色新政(英文版)(18页).pdf

    Mission 2070: A Green New Deal for a Net Zero IndiaW H I T E P A P E RN O V E M B E R 2 0 2 1In Collaboration with Kearney and Observer Research FoundationContentsForewordExecutive SummaryIntroduction1 India and Climate Change2 The $15 Trillion Pathway to Rapid Decarbonization: A Sectoral Roadmap 2.1 Indias GHG Footprint Today2.2 Decarbonizing India: A roadmap for Sectoral Transformation2.3 Cross-Sectoral Enablers to Accelerate Green Transition2.4 The Economic and Job Creation Potential of the Green New Deal for India3 An Action Plan for Stakeholders: The Time to Act is Now on Public HealthContributors/AcknowledgementsConclusionContributorsEndnotes34567 781416 17 181920Images: Getty Images, Unsplash 2021 World Economic Forum. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, including photocopying and recording, or by any information storage and retrieval system.Disclaimer This document is published by the World Economic Forum as a contribution to a project, insight area or interaction. The findings, interpretations and conclusions expressed herein are a result of a collaborative process facilitated and endorsed by the World Economic Forum but whose results do not necessarily represent the views of the World Economic Forum, nor the entirety of its Members, Partners or other stakeholders.A Green New Deal for India2India is now on the path to net zero.In the ongoing COP26 summit at Glasgow, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has committed India to an ambitious five part “Panchamrit” pledge. Four of these are specific goals for 2030: a) to reach 500GW of non-fossil electricity capacity; b) to generate half of all energy requirements from renewables; c) to reduce emissions by 1 billion tons from now to 2030; and d) to reduce emissions intensity of GDP by 45%. The fifth pledge in Panchamrit commits India to net-zero emissions by 2070. Indias five commitments are a critical foundation in the global pathway to achieving the ambitious 1.5C global warming target.This World Economic Forum, Kearney and Observer Research Foundation report details a “Green New Deal”, a possible roadmap for Indias net-zero transition by 2070. There is often a perception of inherent conflict between Indias two major transformations of the 21st century: first, its transformation from an agriculture and services led economy to a more balanced economy with a thriving manufacturing sector; and second, its transition to a net zero economy. This paper presents a case for why a holistic green growth model is the optimal and synergistic way for India to successfully accomplish both these transformations. The findings presented in this report are based on the combined qualitative and quantitative research by the Forum, Kearney, and the ORF teams and mark the beginning of a multipronged joint effort across the three organizations to catalyse climate action in key sectors of the Indian economy.A Green New Deal for a net-zero India can save lives, catalyse entire new industries, create millions of jobs, drive trillions of dollars of economic value and provide a significant heft to Indias role in the frontline of the global war on climate change. The time to act is now and this report aims to decipher the road ahead and offer insights that encourage decisive climate action.ForewordViswanathan Rajendran Partner, Kearney IndiaArun Unni Partner, Kearney IndiaSamir Saran President, Observer Research FoundationSriram Gutta Deputy Head, India and South Asia, World Economic ForumA Green New Deal for IndiaNovember 2021A Green New Deal for India3Executive SummaryIndia is at the cusp of two significant transformations. The first is its economic transformation. India will soon be the most populous country in the world and will be home to one of the youngest populations in the world. The country is also home to a large population that lives below the poverty line. A rapid and equitable economic growth will be critical to meet the growth and lifestyle aspirations of 1.4 billion people. The manufacturing sector will need to grow to supplement the impressive services sector economy and cater to the large population living off the agrarian economy. The second is its green transformation. Indias per capita energy use today is lower than most nations, its use of materials such as iron is still modest, and its manufacturing sector is still relatively under-developed. Unlike developed nations with mature greenhouse gas (GHG) infrastructure, India is yet to build a lot of its GHG inventory. However, as India grows, so will its GHG footprint. While Indias growth will need to factor in higher consumption levels across its population, it has a unique opportunity to leapfrog this journey through low/no emissions technologies. In this paper, we build the case for why Indias green transformation is an attractive, vital and mandatory component of its overall economic transformation. A Green New Deal for India will necessarily implicate the five sectors that contribute to almost all its GHG emissions:Pillar 1 Energy: The energy sector accounts for 40% of Indias GHG emissions, with coal being the dominant source of total fossil CO2 emissions. Decarbonizing the energy sector is a foundational priority for Indias energy sector and will require a three-pronged approach: replace fossil fuels with renewables; reduce fossil CO2 emissions from legacy infrastructure through enhanced efficiencies; and remove unavoidable carbon emissions through carbon sequestration.Pillar 2 Mobility: The mobility sector is heavily reliant on oil and contributes to almost half of Indias oil demand. A green transformation of mobility will need a shift in modal mix from road to rail, as well as a broad-based fuel diversification approach to encourage sustainable fuels (biofuels, CNG, LNG) in the immediate term, electrification in the medium term and hydrogen-based heavy mobility in the long term.Pillar 3 Industry: Manufacturing is a key contributor to Indias GHG emissions, with the iron and steel, cement, and chemicals and fertilizers sectors having the highest CO2 footprint. A radical decarbonization of these sectors will need demand-management measures such as circular economy acceleration; continued energy-efficiency improvements; electrification of heat; carbon capture, utilization and storage; low-carbon fuels such as biomass and hydrogen; and innovative technologies with non-fossil feedstock. Pillar 4 Green Buildings, Infrastructure and Cities: Indias top 25 cities contribute more than 15% of its estimated GHG emissions. Indias transition to greener cities, buildings and infrastructure will need a rethink of its approach to urban planning with a focus on transit-oriented urban development and an emphasis on low-carbon buildings and infrastructure construction. Pillar 5 Agriculture: The agriculture sector is the largest contributor to nitrous oxide (N2O) and methane emissions. To reduce agriculture emissions, India will need a national campaign to empower, educate and enable more than 100 million farmers in adopting precision agriculture, sustainable animal husbandry and green energy.In addition to the five sectoral pillars, India will need four cross-sectoral enablers for its green transition. These include an accelerated approach to green technology innovation, an overarching framework to catalyse green finance, an integrated approach to carbon, capture, utilization and storage, and a plan for climate adaptation. Across the five pillars and the four enablers, we estimate that a Green New Deal for India could represent upwards of a $15 trillion economic opportunity by 2070, with the potential to create more than 50 million net new jobs. With concerted action, $1 trillion of this opportunity could potentially materialize within this decade.In this context, we argue that it is now time for a Green New Deal for India. The government, the private sector, investors, civil society organizations and individual citizens need to step forward and accelerate the Next Green Revolution. Indias transition to a net zero economy can save lives, catalyse new industries, create over 50 million jobs and contribute more than $15 trillion in economic impact. It is time for a Green New Deal for India. It is now time for a Green New Deal for India. The government, the private sector, investors, civil society organizations and individual citizens need to step forward and accelerate the Next Green Revolution.A Green New Deal for India4IntroductionSince the Paris Agreement on climate change in 2015 there have been major changes to the context surrounding the global effort to combat climate change. Across the world, efforts towards “green new deals” have intensified policy packages that combine measures towards decarbonization and adaptation with those that would increase livelihoods and create wealth. In other words, there is a new expectation that the green transition will not be a drag on economic prosperity, but indeed the engine for an economic transformation that will increase inclusion and growth. Much of this updated ambition for the future is based not on changes in the political discourse but on technological and financial innovation that make the Paris promises seem relatively unambitious. Indias commitment at Paris represented a significant shift in its traditional approach to global climate negotiations; it reflected a new optimism about the countrys growth path and its place in the world. Political leaders at both state and central levels have, since then, decided that investment in the green transition could create economic growth momentum that has been missing for some years.This white paper will lay out a framework for creating green growth momentum in India. There are two horizons we have in mind: the short to medium term, to 2030; and the longer term, to 2070. We believe that if the drivers and enablers of growth we outline in this paper are kept in mind, India can leverage green growth to add $1 trillion to GDP by 2030 and a massive $15 trillion by 2070.Indias green transition is no longer a drag on its growth. Instead, it will be the driver of growth for decades to come.A Green New Deal for India5India stands at a crossroads. It faces two transitions, one unavoidable and one aspirational. The unavoidable transition is the demographic bulge. This generation of young Indians will need employment and a path to prosperity, and Indias success in delivering livelihoods to this generation will determine whether it emerges from the 21st century a middle-class nation. If Indias high growth moment is postponed, then the demographic algebra turns adverse: the country will first grow restless and then grow old before it grows rich. The aspirational transition, meanwhile, is urbanization and formalization. Indians have voted with their feet, choosing to transform the country into an increasingly urban space, with urban patterns of consumption and production spreading across the country alongside the desire for formal, reliable employment. In parallel with these two transitions, India faces two emergencies: one that is immediate, and one that is era-defining. In the immediate future, the country which has been significantly hit by the COVID-19 pandemic must plan for its recovery and rebuilding. India is on the frontline of the second emergency, climate change. More Indians are exposed to the negative effects of climate change and extreme weather events than any other nationality. And Indias development choices are the most crucial determinant of whether the world will meet the challenge of keeping global temperature rises below 1.5C or even 2C. These two transitions and two emergencies interact in problematic ways. The jobs and livelihoods imperative is strong and urgent and the country has to offer a decent livelihood to its young population for its stability and prosperity. In an earlier time, this may have been met through carbon-intensive industrialization, but that path is not available today as both global capital and technology-led innovations have identified new pathways. Urbanization and formalization of the economy have also traditionally been associated with an increase in carbon-intensive consumption and production. Meanwhile, government finances are struggling to help craft a post-pandemic recovery and the fiscal space available for catering to other challenges remains constrained. How can the livelihood aspirations of the youth, the ambitions to control and lower emissions and the unavoidable reality of adapting to a warmer climate be managed? The complex interaction of the two transitions and the two emergencies complicates any attempt to produce a simplistic forecast on economic trajectories or indeed any commitment about future emissions. However, one fact is clear. India needs to mobilize large and sustained flow of domestic and global capital for its sustainable development and climate ambitions, and it needs to present itself as the best chance for the world to respond to both the Sustainable Developments Goals 2030 and global warming and climate change. India must see in these two endeavours an opportunity to attract capital that will also accelerate its post-pandemic recovery.From a global perspective, Indias choices will determine the worlds success or failure on climate change. Current per capita emissions are low in India. Yet its contribution to future emissions is considerably greater, as its population is projected to continue to grow and surpass Chinas around 2025. Some projections of gross domestic product (GDP) see the country grow at a rate well above the world average between 2013 and 2040, at about 6.5% per annum and if this growth is powered by an increased manufacturing base as well as higher consumption demand, energy consumption and emissions may see a large increase.A pragmatic political choice to invest in a greener economic development trajectory will bring with it certain benefits. The recovery from the pandemic and the provision of livelihoods would be greatly eased by a more exuberant private investment climate that may double down on this opportunity. Commitment to the green transition would encourage investors to recognize a progressive policy ecosystem helping to reduce risk perceptions and unlocking greater interest. The transformation of specific high-emission sectors alongside cross-cutting reforms would serve as enablers for broader and inclusive growth and reinvigorate Indias growth story. Investing in India may well become synonymous with the urgently needed global climate mitigation efforts. Indias development choices are the most crucial determinant of whether the world will meet the challenge of keeping global temperature rises below 1.5C or even 2C.India and Climate Change1India faces multiple challenges: recovery from the pandemic, climate pressures, a jobs crisis. Investing in a green development trajectory would a

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